Highly placed official sources informed that the level of violence is not an indicator of improvement of the overall situation and pointed out that there have been instances in the past when the level of violence came down only to see the militants bouncing back again. “One can say that the situation has improved only when there is durable peace in the area,” sources pointed out.
It is reported that a substantial portion of development funds is going to the coffers of the militant groups, which is another area of concern and so far only the case relating to siphoning off of Rs 1 crore from the NC Hills Autonomous Council was handed over to the National Investigating Agency (NIA).
Sources said that the Centre provided Rs 84,000 crore to the NE States in the 10th Five Year Plan and Rs 43,000 crore in the first two years of the Eleventh Plan andsecurity forces believe that some amounts of that money boosted the coffers of the militant groups.
However, it is impossible to ascertain exactly how much of development funds went to the militant groups, sources added.
Sources said that at present the situation in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland remains cause of concern, while the situation in Tripura improved considerably with militancy on the wane and Meghalaya managing to deal with the situation to a great extent.
Though the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) suffered serious setbacks in recent months following crackdown by the Government of Bangladesh, the outfit cannot be written off as the military wing leaders of the outfit, including its commander-in-chief Paresh Baruah, are still at large. Sources said that the strength of ULFA was reduced to a great extent following the arrests of its top leaders, including chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa.
However, several dreaded members ofthe outfit, including Drishti Rajkhowa and Antu Chowdang, are still in Bangladesh and the Government of the neighbouring country are yet to take any step to hand them over to India.
Moreover, the Government of Bangladesh is yet to give any assurance on India’s request to hand over ULFA general secretary Anup Chetia, who is still in the custody of the Government of Bangladesh, while another hardcore militant, Derhagra Sarania, known to be close aide of Paresh Baruah, who was picked up in November, is yet to be handed over.
Sources revealed that the ULFA is also maintaining its bases, including the headquarter of the 28 battalion, in Myanmar and despite assurances, the Government of Myanmar is yet to launch any concerted operation to evict the camps.
Though Assam Rifles has been entrusted with the responsibility of guarding the international border with Myanmar, it is not possible to seal every inch of the border because of the terrain. Sources said that according to intelligence inputs, Paresh Baruah, who is now in China, visited the Kachin area of Myanmar on several occasions to strengthen ULFA’s ties with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).
The situation in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) area also remains an area of concern because of the spurt of acts of violence by members of the anti-talk faction of the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB).
Though the outfit suffered severe setbacks last year, a number of hardcore members of the outfit are still at large and they are capable of striking back, sources said.
The situation in North Cachar Hills improved considerably following surrender of weapons by the members of the DHD(J), commonly known as the Black Widow group, but the Centre is keeping a close watch on the situation to ascertain whether lasting peace is seen in the Hill district.
The emergence of new militant groups in Assam is also an area of concern as members of a newly formed outfit, United Tribal Liberation Army managed to overrun a police post in Cachar recently to take away a number of sophisticated weapons.
Sources said that reports of extortion's by militant groups under cease-fire agreement is viewed seriously by the Government and the issue has been taken up strongly with the leaders of such groups. There have also been instances of the groups under cease-fire procuring weapons and recruiting new members.
Official sources admitted that there has been no improvement of the situation in Manipur and the militant groups are still enjoying support of a large number of people.
Though both factions of the NSCN are under cease-fire agreement, factional clashes between the members of the NSCN(I-M) and NSCN(K) resulted in disturbance in the State and both factions are openly collecting “tax” from all sections of people, sources said.
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