Northeast India: Elusive Peace?

By Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

The curious intermix of security, development, tourism, human rights and inter state relations is evident in the Northeast. As the security in Tripura which is largely due to state efforts has improved there is growing interest in tourism, on the other hand militancy in Assam has resulted in continuing concerns about development and thus the road works in the East West corridor in the North Cachar hills linking with Mizoram and Tripura remains restricted.

On the other hand the standard militancy call on Republic Day also raises concerns about acceptance of sovereignty by a segment of the population which is spread across the Northeast and not just restricted to some pockets. Thus the farce of militancy and counter militancy is likely to continue in the days ahead with the political and policing approach clashing intermittently.

The 12th annual conference of the Northeast Region Commonwealth Parliamentary Association passed a resolution urging the Centre to initiate a political dialogue with all insurgent groups for peace and development in the region.

Meghalaya Governor R.S. Mooshahary said in the concluding session, “Meghalaya and Mizoram, which have had their share of insurgency, are peaceful at present. Tripura is also free from insurgency-related violence, as is Nagaland.

Assam is fast becoming normal but for the violence-prone Bodoland Territorial Council area,” Mooshahary said. “Only Manipur is a difficult state with violence continuing unabated.” “I do not subscribe to the view that we need to continue fighting insurgency and terrorism with the help of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act.

The act has been in use for long and has lost its relevance in view of the emerging role of civil society in violence-prone areas. The legislation has alienated civil society with the passage of time,” he said. “We can tackle the problem more effectively by involving them (citizens),” Mooshahary said.

This is also evident with groups such as the National Democratic Front of Boroland [NDFB] ready to take over space vacated by other groups as the United Liberation Front of Assam [ULFA] or even its pro talks faction. The NDFB Rajain Daimary faction is not willing to come for talks, while another group is in cease fire mode. On the other hand the government has been successful in controlling the smaller militant groups such as the Dimasa Jewel faction and Karbi groups as well as the ULFA.

However the key to militancy in the North East lies in the ULFA – NDFB combine in Assam, the NSCN combine in Nagaland and the Meitei Valley groups in Manipur. Controlling these would be necessary to bring peace and stability to the region as they are feeding and supporting smaller groups to rise against the state.

On 08 January the much anticipated moment for the people of Manipur finally arrived. Senior citizens of the state succeeded in bringing together the government and Apunba Lup who signed a memorandum of understanding to end the impasse in the agitation in the aftermath of the July 23 Khwairamband firing which had led to closure of schools for over four months.

The agitation against opening of schools in Manipur led by the civil society which had demanded resignation of the Chief Minister had also been politicized with the Apunba Lup attempting to broker on behalf of the people, having to be brought to book by other organizations led by the senior citizens.

The gap of over four months in education for the students would be damaging especially for those who are to appear in all India examinations and studying in Classes 10 and 12. This has only added to level of tensions in the state and the militancy would get a further boost by such mindless actions by citizens purportedly on behalf of the people. This is another level of militancy in the Northeast that of adverse civil society intervention which needs some attention.

The National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) opposed participation of other “non-mandated” Naga militant groups in the peace process and insisted on integration of Naga-inhabited areas under one administrative umbrella. Thuingaleng Muivah, general secretary of the group said, “It is another form of unity first, negotiation next, as propagated by the adversaries of the Naga people,” in his statement on the occasion of the 30th Raising Day of the NSCN (I-M) at its council headquarters, Camp Hebron.

The NSCN (IM) also expressed disappointment that the proposal has been floated by the Ministry of Home Affairs rather than coming from the Prime Minister’s Office as hitherto fore. The statements came on the, “Raising Day” of the Outfits on 31 January.

The Central Government had sent a 29-point counter proposal to the 31-point charter of proposals submitted by the NSCN (Isak-Muivah). The Centre’s proposals include financial sops and induction of all senior leaders of the group into a new federal structure of administration. The Centre, while tabling the 29-point counter proposals to the NSCN, also wanted all Naga groups to unite and come for talks before the final settlement was reached.

At the strategic level there are three issues which have been flagged. The first one is an internal one that of Naga unity despite many declarations during the Year including the one at Chiangmai in Thailand.

The second issue is that of sovereignty which has been emphasized, thus there are maximum demands rather than attempting to resolve the same within the Indian rubric.

Finally there is the issue of integrating the Naga homeland which is now split between India and Myanmar and also within India in various states. Thus it appears that the demands seem to be unrealistic and may not be accepted by any forum.

**Brig. (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle is an army veteran with South Asia Security-Risks.com, a South Asian security risk and knowledge management consultancy and Editor South Asia Security Trends. His most recent book is, “Securing India: Assessment of Security and Defence Capabilities”. )