UPA Still on Top

Poll shows UPA ahead of NDA; Maya, Badal are goners

By R Jagannathan

There's growing dissatisfaction among the electorate with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Raj Patidar/Reuters

The biggest fact that jumps out at you from the CNN-IBN State of the Nation Survey is the electorate’s growing level of dissatisfaction with the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Satisfaction levels have fallen from 65 percent to 49 percent between 2009 and 2011, and dissatisfaction levels from 20 percent to 30 percent.

The next big thing that hits you is the complete inability of the opposition – primarily the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance – to reap any kind of anti-incumbency dividend from this growing dissatisfaction.

The number of people who would like to give the UPA another chance and those who wouldn’t stand almost even at 37 percent and 35 percent. But this does not translate to any difference in the kind of seats the UPA and NDA would win if elections were to be held today.

The more interesting findings of the Survey pertain to the five states where anti-incumbency sentiments are very strong. These states are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In four of them, Congress is the prime beneficiary. Only in Andhra Pradesh is the Congress in steep decline – thanks both to the Telangana agitation and the rise of YS Jaganmohan Reddy.

Mayawati’s throne in Uttar Pradesh is shaky. Reuters

In short: Mayawati’s throne is shaky, and so are Prakash Singh Badal’s in Punjab, Ramesh Pokhriyal’s in Uttarakhand, and Sadananda Gowda’s in Karnataka. The defection of Jaganmohan Reddy from the Congress in Andhra is likely to end in the latter’s defeat – though elections are not due till 2014.

The Survey, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 19 states at 1,300 randomly-chosen locations, shows both UPA and NDA marginally increasing their vote shares by 1.5-2 percent, and this obviously comes at the expense of a motley group called “Others” – which is primarily the Left and regional parties.

But, with both alliances gaining evenly, it leaves the seat position almost exactly the same as now. The UPA would return to power.

According to seat projections made on the basis of the vote share figures by Rajeeva Karandikar, director of the Chennai Mathematical Institute, the UPA will end up with 260-280 seats (current total: 262), the NDA with 140-160 (currently 159) and Others with 113-133 (currently 122).

Since this leaves things more or less as they are, clearly the general elections in 2014 will be crucially dependent on alliances and strategies – assuming the voter sentiment between now and then remains the same.

The Survey’s findings suggest that anti-incumbency is strong at the state-level, but not at the Centre, despite the detection of umpteen scams during UPA’s second shot at government after the 2009 election.

This means the NDA’s real strengths are at the state level, but it is unable to transfer its strengths to the central level – where the UPA’s clear leadership structure comes as a huge advantage.

Since both UPA and NDA have made gains in vote share, their net position remains the same. The UPA has made gains in rural areas, where its anti-poverty schemes seem to be working, the young (18-25, where the Rahul charm is working best), and among Muslims (not surprising) and upper caste Hindus (surprising). The last could be the result of the shift in Utttarakhand politics and the BJP’s inability to retain it upper caste voter base in Uttar Pradesh.

The NDA’s vote share gains are largely in cities (not surprising, since this has been the traditional BJP vote base), the upper classes (not castes), and among the Hindu peasantry (this seems to be a new gain, and could reflect the party’s strength in Karnataka and Bihar, apart from traditional strongholds in Gujarat and Central India.

Clearly, the big takeout from this poll is that both the UPA and NDA have work to do. While the UPA needs to work on its scam-tainted image, the NDA has to get its leadership, caste equations and alliances right.

2014 is not quite a done deal.

Table 1.1 Dissatisfaction with UPA’s performance hits a high

Dissatisfaction with UPA’s performance hits a high

Table 1.2 UPA I better than UPA II

UPA I better than UPA II

Table 1.3 Opinion divided on whether Government deserves a second chance

Does UPA deserve another chance?

Table: Vote share estimates: Minor gains for both UPA and NDA

Vote share for UPA and NDA.

Table: UPA gains among rural and younger voters

UPA gains among younger and rural voters.

Table: NDA gains among Urban and upper class voters

NDA gains among urban and upper class voters.

Table: Erosion of traditional support for BSP and left

Erosion of traditional support for BSP and Left

Table: Seats projections based on State of the Nation Survey August 2011. Survey conducted by Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai.

Seat projections

Source: firstpost.com