Congress in Manipur May Buck Anti-incumbency Mood

It is likely to emerge as the largest political party, despite boycott call by militants and stiff competition

Imphal/Churachandpur (Manipur): The Congress party is likely to emerge as the largest political party in the 60-member Manipur state assembly although it faces stiff opposition from new political entrants in the state such as the Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which are fighting the state polls for the first time.

Congress is expected to reduce its tally from a high of 30 seats in the last assembly elections to around 20 in the strife-torn state, which will require it to co-opt other parties to form a government.

Tight cover: The residence of Trinamool Congress candidate P. Songlianlal in Churachandpur. The elections are being held under the security vigil of 350 companies of paramilitary forces, with a total deployment of 62,000 personnel. Photo: Indranil Bhoumik/Mint

The other contenders in the fray for the 10th assembly elections include the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Communist Party of India (CPI), and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which is fighting the low-key election as part of a coalition comprising the Manipur People’s Party (MPP), the Janata Dal (United) and the Communist Party of India-Marxist, or CPI (M). The Congress has also been boycotted by the Coordinating Committee (CorCom), a coalition of seven valley-based underground outfits.

“There are no such things as issues here. Money will drive elections,” said a weary Hilam Rajesh, editor of The Sangai Express, the largest circulated daily in the state. The stairway to his office is flanked by state police commandoes as the publication has been receiving threats from militant groups.

Also, unlike other states, religion and delimitation are not factors in Manipur. The last delimitation exercise was carried out in 1976. An attempt made in 2002 met widespread opposition with allegations about valley and hill areas misrepresenting the number of voters.

“Manipur politics is all about assertion of ethnic identities,” added Konsam Ibo Singh, who teaches political science in Manipur University.

Of the 60 seats in the assembly, 20 are in the hills, with the balance in the valley, which is primarily inhabited by Meities, who are Hindus. The Nagas and Kukis are tribes with a significant presence in the hills.
The Manipur state elections have seen large fluctuations in voting percentages. While 82% voted in the 2007 assembly polls, the number fell to 46% in the 2009 parliamentary elections.

There is popular sentiment in favour of the Congress in the Meitei-dominated valley.
Sundar Sharma, a 25-year-old Meitei from Imphal, said, “Congress is not much corrupt. We will vote for it.”
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and former Lok Sabha speaker P.A. Sangma, said: “Anti-incumbency is very high. The Congress performance has been very bad and the people are angry.”

The NCP is contesting 22 seats on its own and is part of an opposition alliance that is contesting in 43.
Some say the candidates are more important than their parties. “Politics is here more about personalities than parties,” said Radhabinod Koijam, president of the NCP in Manipur and a former chief minister.

To compound problems for the Congress, while the state government had earlier banned Naga separatist leader T. Muivah from visiting his birthplace in the state, Neiphiu Rio, Nagaland’s chief minister, is actively campaigning in the Naga-dominated hill districts of Senapati, Ukhrul, Chandel and Tamenglong.
These are among the districts that the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM), wants to be carved out to form the Naga state of Nagalim, along with Naga-dominated areas in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Myanmar.

“The ideology of the NPF is to speak of the political voice of the Nagas. Our voice is not being heard. We are fighting elections for the first time in Manipur as part of our plan to fight elections from the Naga-inhabited areas of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam,” said Abu Metha, press secretary to Neiphiu Rio.
NPF is fighting elections in 12 seats in the four hill districts.

However, Phungzathang Tongsing, Manipur’s power minister, who is contesting from the Churachandpur assembly constituency, commented, while sitting in his palatial compound in Imphal. “What is the purpose of NPF? What is their programme? They can’t do anything for the state of Manipur.”

While the security establishment is strongly opposed to withdrawing the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (Afspa) from more areas, as it provides soldiers immunity from being prosecuted in any court of law, almost all the political parties are opposing it.

“There are divisive forces trying to break Manipur. Our fight is against corruption. We also want removal of Afspa,” said M. Nara Singh, CPI state secretary, sitting in his election office under a dim light. His party was a part of the Congress government but is now contesting independently in 24 seats.

Arguing similarly, TMC’s Kim Gangte said, “We are against this draconian law. If Manipur is part of India, it is time that the centre should look at it (removing Afspa).”

Underground groups
The CorCom has boycotted the Congress and has warned its candidates and workers against campaigning. Grenades have been thrown at the homes of candidates, cadres and party offices and there have been instances of improvised explosive devices (IED) camouflaged in cabbage being planted to cause damage.
The CorCom has named 38 Congress candidates and their 1,790 supporters in 38 constituencies as being covered under the threat.

“There is a law and order issue,” said Congress’ Tongsing, whose Churachandpur assembly constituency faces a keenly watched contest between the Congress, NCP and TMC. The other contenders are from the Shiv Sena and an independent.

P. Songlianlal of the TMC, who is also contesting the seat, said, “CorCom and NPF don’t have a problem with us.”The election marks several firsts. Apart from Muslim candidates fighting on Shiv Sena tickets, it will be for the first time that elections to all the 60 seats will be held in one phase. In 2007, state assembly elections were held in three phases with the parliamentary elections of 2009 being held in two phases.

The elections are being held under the security vigil of 350 companies of paramilitary forces for the state, with a total deployment of 62,000 personnel. Of the 2,357 polling stations in the state, only 160 are classified as normal by the Election Commission, with 1,325 termed sensitive and 872 hyper-sensitive.
Ratnakar Baral, director general of police (DGP), dismissed the apprehensions. “We are fully prepared,” he said.

Baral replaced Y. Joykumar Singh this month at the directive of the Election Commission.

While P.C. Lawmkunga, additional chief secretary and chief electoral officer for the state, admitted that his “most serious concern is the security”, he added that the Election Commission was “very much prepared in terms of manpower and security”.

utpal.b@livemint.com