By Chiranjib HaldarAmidst the hullabaloo over the polling in Uttar Pradesh, we seem to have forgotten that Manipur also went to the hustings last month and is awaiting the results with bated breath. While the Congress-led Secular Progressive Front is aspiring for a consecutive third term under chief minister Okram Ibodi Singh, the opposition People's Democratic Front (PDF) alliance comprising Manipur People's Party, NCP, JD(U), CPM and RJD is hopeful of toppling the decade-old Congress regime.
There are also three fence-sitters expected to play kingmaker in deciding the fate of the 60-member assembly. The Trinamool Congress, Manipur State Congress Party and BJP are being wooed by both the ruling Congress-led front and the opposition PDF alliance. Foreseeing a fractured mandate, the PDF has also welcomed any political party wishing to join the alliance after the results so as to prevent a Congress-led coalition from returning to power.
But no matter which coalition comes to power - probably with a wafer-thin majority - the state machinery can't afford to overlook the ethnic complexity in this strategic northeastern state. Dozens of ethnic groups are squeezed into Manipur; this has turned it into a sim-mering cauldron down the years. Imphal valley has a majority Hindu Meitei population leavened with Pangal (Muslim Meitei) and Bangla-Myanmar migrants. The Manipur hills contain 40% of the state's population - ethnic groups ranging from Hmar and Paite to Zoumi, Nepalese, Kuki and Nagas living in Churachandpur, Chandel, Tamenglong, Senapati and Ukhrul districts. Barring the Nepali and Indian migrants, most of these tribal groups find themselves clubbed into the underground movements and the local mafia.
Electoral politics aside, the Nagas want to unite in an integrated unit including areas from Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and ideally, even Myanmar. But the Meiteis want to maintain the integrity of their territory, which is all of Manipur. And both Nagas and Meiteis want to maintain their independent socio-cultural identities and focus on counteracting the state's assimilation of their communities.
Given all this, it's little wonder there is permanent ethnic strife in the region. To add to the impasse, Kukis migrating from Myanmar have caused their numbers in Manipur to rise. They have laid claim to a Kuki homeland on land the Nagas claim to be theirs in Manipur. Continual clashes between the Nagas, Meiteis and Kukis have given rise to demographic shifts. The truth is that bigger ethnic groups in Manipur have always wanted to win over smaller tribes spread across the state districts.
No matter who forms the new government in Manipur, the state has a bumpy ride ahead with a plethora of existential roadblocks. The United Naga Council (UNC) has severed ties with the Manipur government, causing the Nagas of Manipur to stay away from the significant Lui-Ngai-Ni (seed sowing) festi-val. In addition, protests demand-ing the unconditional release of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) foreign affairs head Anthony Shimray - lodged in Tihar jail - have erupted in Ukhrul, Senapati and Chandel districts of Manipur and are expected to intensify.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his visit to Imphal in December last year reiterated that the Centre was committed to the territorial integrity of Manipur. The UNC has temporarily lifted the ban on two cru-cial projects: construction of the Jiribam-Tupul rail link and exploration for natural resources in Tamenglong. However, the suspension of the ban is only until the new government takes over in Imphal.
The UNC had imposed the ban in protest against the UPA's lack of political will to come up with an alternative arrangement for the Nagas of Manipur. It had also imposed a marathon 100-day economic blockade on the Imphal-Dimapur and Imphal-Silchar routes last year to denounce the Manipur government's alleged attempt to bifurcate Naga-dominated areas in order to create new districts. Any resort to this kind of blockade in the future will again cause immense hardship to the people of Manipur with prices of essential commodities skyrocketing.
The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is another sore point with most Manipuris. Though many have demanded repeal of this 'draconian' Act, the AFSPA has been lifted only in Imphal city comprising seven assembly constituencies. Although Irom Sharmila's fast for repealing the Act has entered its twelfth year, AFSPA still provides the military personnel in the state immunity from the country's judicial system. Any charge against soldiers has to first have prosecution sanction from the home ministry before they can be tried in court. But sensing the popular mood, chief minister Singh has promised to withdraw the Act from the entire state by "improving the law and order situation" if the Congress is voted back to power.
Mudslinging against opponents has been the hallmark of campaigning in Manipur. All the political parties in the fray are conspicuous by the absence of any coherent and realistic blueprint for the state's future. Hence, their manifestos seem to be carbon copies of each other. The absolute paucity of political vision can be gauged from the fact that distributing money among the electorate is seen as an adequate means of uplifting them. Employment can't be generated artificially by creating more government departments. For that, the government must implement policies than enable job creation in the largely untapped sectors of the state's economy.
The writer is a commentator on South Asian affairs.
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