The masterminds Isak Swu (left) and Thuingaleng Muivah are confident of sealing a peace deal by March
NAGALAND IS buzzing with a sense of anticipation that a solution to the six-decade-long Indo-Naga political dispute is within reach. The sentiment was given a boost when National Socialist Council of Nagaland-IM leaders Thuingaleng Muivah and Isak Swu announced in Dimapur last week that a deal could be reached as early as March next year. However, having held talks with the Government of India (GoI) in isolation and secrecy, the biggest question is, will the solution — which will, in all probability, be only for the British-created state of Nagaland that will act as a political umbrella for all Nagas — and the leadership of Muivah, a Thankul Naga from Manipur, be accepted?
The problem stems from the fact that the
NSCN(IM) has not involved the other groups in the negotiations, keeping
their dialogue a secret. What compounds the secrecy is that the
allegiance to the groups is along tribal lines. Some tribes support the
IM, while others back the Naga National Council (NNC), Kitovi-Khole and
so on; the IM alone doesn’t have the Naga mandate.
“The NSCN(IM) leaders treat Naga sovereignty
as if it is their private property. They don’t want to share power and
position, not realising that no single group has a monopoly over the
Naga nation,” says Father Abraham Lotha, a Naga intellectual. “The IM
leadership has always said, ‘We will take it to the Naga people and
their decision will be ultimate.’ The problem is that the IM has not
taken the proceedings of any negotiations with the GoI to the Naga
people. The Naga public have not been given their due respect and place,
nor have their democratic rights been respected. What will the people
decide if they don’t know on what point to decide?”
While the NSCN(IM) leaders are trying to meet
other groups on their present visit, a disconnect stemming from a lack
of information has left the faction sequestered. “The biggest problem
the GoI is facing is what to do with Muivah. He may bring a solution and
from what I have gathered from my sources in Delhi, it will be for
Nagaland state,” says Daniel*, a member of NSCN(Kitovi-Khole). “But
given that he is from Manipur, the people will never accept his
leadership. The GoI will have to create space for him in Manipur.”
Michael*, a Naga author who has travelled
extensively across all Naga areas (in Assam, Manipur, Arunachal,
Nagaland and Myanmar), agrees, “In my opinion, 95 percent of Nagas will
not accept Muivah’s leadership. Many victims of the IM’s political
anti-NNC purges are itching to get their revenge on him for killing over
3,000 Nagas in pursuit of his political ambitions.”
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Having opposed Nagaland’s statehood and the
Shillong Accord, the NSCN(IM) and others have pushed for sovereignty,
causing misery to the local populace. So, it becomes difficult for any
group to go in for a settlement short of complete sovereignty without
facing a backlash.
OVER THE years, sovereignty
has progressively redefined itself as an alternative arrangement from a
Jammu & Kashmir-like status to the one enjoyed by Bhutan. So, when The Indian Express
recently announced that the NSCN(IM) had accepted the Indian
Constitution, there was a wave of public criticism, with the general
consensus being, “Why has the NSCN(IM) fought for 40 years only to
accept what Nagaland already enjoys?” The report resulted in a quick
clarification from the IM, but the truth is, no one knows what the broad
outlines of the solution are.
The NSCN(IM) would not only be concerned about
a public backlash, but they would also be carefully calculating the
reactions of other groups who are opportunistically waiting to ridicule
IM and project themselves as the real deal.
Over the past few months, different groups
have been making moves to secure their future. After the June 2011 split
in NSCN(K), where the chairman SS Khaplang, a Burmese Naga who had
originally teamed up with Muivah and Swu when they broke away from the
NNC, was ‘impeached’ by Kitovi Zhimomi and Gen Khole Konyak, Khaplang
has seemingly shifted his focus solely onto Myanmar, making him
“irrelevant” to the Indo-Naga talks.
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According to sources, he recently signed a
seven-point agreement with the Myanmar government, which ensures an
unconditional ceasefire and the withdrawal of the army from all 11 Naga
districts in Myanmar, which will now be policed and administered by
Khaplang.
However, having secured his base in Myanmar,
Khaplang will now play spoilsport on the Indian side of the border.
“Despite having announced his support for the ongoing talks and
non-interference, the NSCN(K) is continuing to push into Arunachal and
eastern Nagaland. They won’t allow a final solution to materialise. They
continue to provide a safe haven to Manipuri and Assamese underground
groups to destabilise the region,” says a source.
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Having impeached Khaplang, Kitovi and Khole have been working to establish themselves as a force to reckon with. From the start, they had broken away from the idea of integration of all Naga areas in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal and Myanmar into ‘Nagalim’ (greater Nagaland) and spoken only of a solution for the Nagaland state.
They have endorsed Khaplang’s moves in Myanmar
and are also supporting the growing demand for an alternative
arrangement in Manipur. The hope is that Muivah will get his political
space in Manipur, while Khaplang remains in Myanmar and the Nagas of
Nagaland create their own political structure. They have already started
the groundwork to get popular support before they propose an
alternative solution to the GoI.
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“The different factions are too full of
themselves; they suffer from opportunism and one-upmanship. No results
delivered, of course,” laments Father Abraham. “All the underground
factions want to control Dimapur, the land of milk and honey. Meanwhile,
extortion is rampant; they all take money that belongs to the people.”
Twice in the past two months, members of the
Joint Legislature Forum, a collective representing all 60 MLAs of
Nagaland cutting across party lines, made their way to New Delhi to
assert their willingness to resign and make way for an interim
government as part of the final solution. “The 2013 election will happen
because both the GoI and NSCN(IM) are not ready for a solution,” says
Abong*, a researcher. “The political parties are pushing for an early
solution and when it falls through, they will say, ‘We did our best. We
are committed but the underground isn’t ready’, and thereby derive
maximum mileage from the situation.”
On the other hand, having signed a ceasefire,
the GoI has been playing a waiting game. “Muivah, Swu and Khaplang are
all in their late 80s. They want to secure something concrete in their
lifetime so that they are immortalised and the next generation has
something to build on,” says a senior intelligence officer, hinting that
if they die, the movement will disintegrate.
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What the GoI doesn’t realise is that the next
generation of the Naga underground is much better trained and educated.
The NSCN(IM) has sent many of their political wonks abroad to be trained
in governance.
Given that Muivah and Swu have not been in
Nagaland since the 1970s, it is the next tier of leadership that has
built the organisation on the ground. Khaplang has already established a
secure base in Myanmar and his next generation will be much more
aggressive and violent.
While a solution draws closer, many questions
remain unanswered, especially the one on sovereignty. While Indian
sovereignty is defined in terms of Westphalian and functional
sovereignty, in Nagaland, sovereignty resides in the village council.
Naga democracy, similar to the Greek city states, is a direct democracy.
“If India really wants a solution, they should agree to give the Nagas
sovereignty. Since the GoI looks at sovereignty as functional
sovereignty whereas among the Nagas, it is a way of life, both systems
can coexist. It is just a question of semantics and India embracing her
federal structure,” says Abong.
Whatever the solution and whoever implements
it, an interim government will have to be formed first. No matter what
anyone says, the NSCN(IM) cannot be discounted as they are the ones in
the driver’s seat; they will be a part of the interim government.
Otherwise, the solution will not hold and the state will slip into
violence. But what happens when the newly created system goes in for
elections?
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“With the solution, a plan for disarmament is a
must,” says Father Abraham. “In Nagaland, guns define power, so who
will be willing to give up their arms? But this is an issue that needs
to be brought up. When the solution comes, it will be imposed as it has
not been discussed with the people and the NSCN(IM) doesn’t have the
complete mandate of the people. They can’t survive without arms.”
Another factor is that the groups don’t trust
each other, nor do they trust the GoI. If the NSCN(IM) and NSCN(KK)
disarm, the door will be open for the Khaplang faction to push in and
take over. This creates a Catch-22 situation; there cannot be a lasting
solution or peace without disarmament, but given the trust deficit,
disarmament will lead to the loss of realistic deterrence and thereby
cause more violence. A committee similar to the UN committee set up in
Nepal to rehabilitate and disarm the Maoists could be an option. It is
suggested that the Indian Army will absorb a few thousand cadres and a
separate Naga army will stand guard, but this remains conjecture.
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Over the next few months, the NSCN(IM) will have to work closely with the people of Nagaland as well as other underground groups to ensure that the solution they bring will be accepted. And the GoI will have to convince Manipur, Nagaland and Assam to create a special status for the Naga areas within their states (the chief ministers of Manipur and Arunachal have already been approached) if they want the solution to hold and allow India to develop the Northeast and actively open up the region for trade with Myanmar.
AS IT stands today,
sovereignty in its historical sense and the integration of all
Naga-dominated areas into one political unit is not an option. However,
given the flexibility of the Indian Constitution and its Article 371 A,
which gives Nagaland a special status ensuring that its land and natural
resources cannot be touched by the Centre, their cultural and
historical systems take precedence (many people don’t go to the police
or court, rather get their justice from tribal and village councils).
So, a formal recognition of Naga aspirations will go a long way without
changing much on the ground.
While the Centre has reasons to be worried
about the impact in J&K of giving Nagas ‘sovereignty’, in truth,
each problem has to be dealt with on its own merits. After years of
conflict, if New Delhi wants to develop the region and prepare them for
trade as a part of the Look East policy, peace and progress are the need
of the hour.
*Names changed to protect identities
Avalok Langer is a Senior Correspondent with Tehelka.
avalok@tehelka.com
avalok@tehelka.com
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