COUNT ALL: The transformation from procedural to substantive democracy
has to be inclusive and the census must ensure that majoritarianism does
not get in the way of this. The picture is of Muslim Rohingyas at a
camp of Border Guards of Bangladesh before their repatriation back to
Myanmar. Photo: AP
If conducted properly, the 2014 headcount will both help to consolidate the country’s political reforms process, and drive it
Myanmar is getting ready for a population census in 2014, its first in
three decades. The headcount is also expected to prepare the ground for
the country’s next general election in 2015, which, it is hoped, will
usher in a genuine people’s government. The previous military regime did
not feel the need for a census. The last census was in 1983, and
Myanmarese born after that have never been enumerated. An accurate count
of the population would both be a critical part of the government’s
political reforms, as well as one of its main drivers.
The census will enable an accurate estimate of key economic indicators
such as GDP, per capita income and other socio-economic data of the
country for national development, economic planning and balanced
assessment. It would be crucial to several key policies relating to
education, health care, housing, employment, sanitation, transport and
communication, to name just a few. The process also becomes necessary
for delimitation of constituencies and ensuring a fair representation of
all the ethnic nationalities in the national and regional legislative
bodies. The project will start in April 2014, ahead of the next general
election. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has agreed to
support Myanmar’s proposed 2014 population and housing census.
After 1931, 1983 census
For years, economists and academics studying Myanmar have been forced to
use the government's notoriously unreliable data. The 1983 census
failed to count people living in areas where insurgencies were raging.
Before that, the last credible census was conducted in 1931, during
British rule. The country’s first nationwide census took place in 1891,
which was five years after the British annexed Upper Burma. The biggest
challenge that faces the reforms process is the ethnic issue. The
government has signed some 18 ceasefire agreements with various ethnic
militias. But the resolution of these would require addressing the
underlying political issues.
Already, there are apprehensions that the census exercise could be used
to marginalise ethnic nationalities, especially those in conflict with
the government.
Issue of Rohingyas
However, the immediate question in any discussion of the Myanmar census
is about the Rohingyas. There are approximately one million Rohingya
Muslims living in Rakhine State. They are not counted among the 135
“national races” and hence are not citizens. They were excluded from the
1983 census. Their statelessness has resulted in their persecution.
Some 200,000 Rohingyas fled Myanmar and are now living in Bangladesh.
Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law has designated citizens into three
categories: 1. full citizens, 2. associate citizens, and 3. naturalised
citizens. None of the categories applies to the Rohingya who fall in the
category of “non-national” or “foreign residents.” But Rohingya groups
insist they have lived in Myanmar for generations. In the recent
violence in the Rakhine state clash between the Buddhists and the
Rohingyas, which also affected other Muslim groups in the state, more
than 200 Rohingya were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced.
Persons of Indian origin
The government appointed an investigation commission into the incidents,
but it has not been able to finish its task yet though two deadlines
have passed. President Thein Sein has pledged to consider new rights for
the stateless Rohingya, but the promise falls short of any commitment
towards full citizenship rights. The expectation that Aung San Suu Kyi
may give strong voice to the problems of the Rohingyas has been belied.
Aside from the Rohingyas, there are about 1,00,000 Chin, who have fled
persecution and settled in the areas bordering India’s Mizoram. Several
hill tribes live in remote and inaccessible areas and will need to be
counted. There are also a large number of native born but non-indigenous
people, such as Indians, who are yet not counted and registered. The
1983 census reported approximately 4,28,000 persons of Indian origin
(PIO) in Myanmar. It has been estimated (unofficially) that as many as
2.5 million PIOs could be living in Myanmar. Although they have lived in
Myanmar for more than four generations, they lack documentation
required by the 1982 Burmese citizenship law and are therefore
stateless. However, many of them have registered for naturalised
citizenship after the government made available this option in the wake
of the 2010 elections.
Over and above all this is the challenge of training people to execute
the census. If conducted properly, it will help in empowering Myanmar’s
ethnic nationalities, provided it is inclusive and conducted according
to international standards.
According to U Khin Yi, Chairperson of the National Population and
Development Commission, a successful census will require “broad and
effective partnership” involving various government sectors,
parliamentarians, civil society, the private sector and international
organisations.
In order to ensure that the census is universal and inclusive of all
national races, Myanmar may even need to review the 1982 citizenship law
to bring it in conformity with international conventions, international
custom and principle generally recognised with regard to nationality.
In addition, it should be brought in line with the principles embodied
in the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons and
the Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness of 1961.
Transformation from procedural to substantive democracy has to be
inclusive. Conducted in the right spirit, Myanmar’s census would have a
big role to play in ensuring that majoritarianism does not get in the
way of this.
(Sonu Trivedi teaches Political Science in Zakir Husain Delhi College, University of Delhi.)
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