The urban sprawl of Aizawl. Picture credit: Lalrinpuii Tlau
The Narendra Modi Government’s ‘look North-East’ policy could not have
come at a more opportune time for this earthquake-prone, rugged terrain.
We now have a Minister in charge of the development of the region, who
could take a hard look at the vulnerabilities and options available.
Natural hazards
Among these, those pertaining to natural hazards cry for attention;
nobody can ignore the notes of caution sounded through occasional
rumbles by Mother Nature here.
Projections are hardly encouraging for a scenario where a hypothetical
earthquake with an intensity of Magnitude7 (M7) on the Richter scale
strikes Aizawl, capital of Mizoram.
The GeoHazards Society India, a leading NGO, has brought out a document
titled ‘Effects of a Magnitude 7 earthquake on Aizawl, Mizoram, and
recommendations to reduce losses.’
It lays bare the implications for the city in graphic detail. GeoHazards
International and reinsurance major Munich Re collaborated in bringing
out the document in coordination with the Mizoram Department of Disaster
Management and Rehabilitation.
Water woes
Aizawl is a city that should never have been located where it is, far
removed from any water source. Even today, water is pumped up several
kilometers from the Tlang River.
It grew around a British Army base stationed there to bring peace
between warring Mizo tribes. As a city, it has housed almost a third of
the population over the last few decades.
Aizawl was hardly affected by the last major earthquake (M8.6) to affect the North-East on Independence Day, 1950.
Not entirely surprising, because most Mizo people then lived in
traditional timber homes on the tops of ridges where earthquakes could
do little harm to them.
But today, the city stands at the threshold of major growth, with a
master plan that sees the population doubling in the next 20 years.
Destructive scenario
A quake of the same intensity could prove devastating today as described
in the scenario — though this is far from a being prediction.
The choice the community here faces is a serious one, says the document.
Hills, valleys and recurring landslides provide evidence of ongoing
geologic processes that bend and buckle the layers of rock beneath the
city, shaping the landscape, and causing earthquakes.
A plausible M7 could cause extensive damage, destroy buildings, render
useless utility systems and roads, cause thousands of casualties, and
set back Mizoram’s economic development.
The shaking would trigger hundreds of landslides, the severity of which
would grow several-fold if it happens during a monsoon, causing new
slides and reactivating existing ones.
The road connecting Aizawl to Silchar and the rest of India passes
through several known landslide-prone areas and will most likely be
unusable for several weeks.
Utility dependencies
Aizawl’s water supply, pumped up from the river that passes through
several landslide-prone areas, is expected to break in 50 or more
locations.
Adding to this is the interdependencies of these critical systems. Water
pumping needs electricity; electricity supply can be restored only by
replacing damaged equipment, which depends on roads being cleared.
The few emergency generators need fuel ferried on lorries. Thus, Aizawl
will be cut off from the rest of the country without water, food, and
electricity.
The document recommends steps that authorities in Aizawl need to
undertake on the highest priority, especially with respect to land use
and building regulations.
Aizawl needs focused attention and extensive technical support from the
Centre to pull it back from the brink of a catastrophic disaster, it
adds.
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